Flood Watch - Peterborough Bancroft District - Thursday, March 27, 2025 10:30am
Flood Watch
Peterborough Bancroft District
Thursday, March 27, 2025
10:30am
The Ministry of Natural Resources– Bancroft Work Centre is advising area residents that a Flood Watch is in effect for all watersheds in the Peterborough Bancroft District until Friday, April 04, 2025
Runoff to local lakes and rivers have peaked and are in decline. Water levels on local lakes will continue to be drawn down in anticipation of runoff increases that are expected from an upcoming rain event over the weekend.
Residents in Peterborough Bancroft District are reminded to keep a close watch on weather conditions, regularly check for updated messages, and exercise caution near fast-moving rivers and streams.
Residents and visitors should exercise caution while around waterbodies and maintain close supervision of children and pets.
Flood prone properties along the York River, Burnt River, and Black River that have been affected in the past should continue to take necessary action to protect and secure any vulnerable property.
Residents that have been affected by high water and flow conditions in the past should continue to take necessary action to protect and secure any vulnerable property in proximity to rivers and lakes and closely monitor developing conditions and regularly check for updated messages.
The ministry is closely monitoring the weather and developing watershed conditions.
Further updates will be issued as appropriate.
TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Description of Weather System
York River Watershed:
Precipitation amounts up to 51mm of rain is forecasted for the next 5 days. Daytime highs during the rain event are forecasted to be 0°C to 2°C. Evening lows at or below 0°C are forecasted for the next 14 days.
Black River and Burnt River Watershed:
Precipitation amounts up to 70mm of rain is forecasted for the next 5 days. Daytime highs can reach up to 6°C and nighttime lows down to -10°C between March 27-31.
Description of Current Conditions
Lake water levels and river flows remain elevated from the precipitation event that occurred on March 16th. River flows will be maintained at elevated levels in advance of the forecasted rain to create more storage capacity in lakes. A significant portion of the snowpack has melted following the rain event from March 16th. Recent surveys indicate an increase in the water content of the snow that falls in the range of 50mm to 100mm. These values are highly variable across the District.
The remaining snowpack is dense and has a limited capacity to absorb rainfall. With forecasted rainfall temperatures ranging from 0°C to 2°C in the York watershed and -10°C to 6°C in the Black River and Burnt River watershed, the impact of the rainfall event on water levels and flows remains uncertain.
DEFINITIONS
• WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY: indicates that high flows, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for such users as boaters, anglers and swimmers but flooding is not expected.
• WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK: gives early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high winds or other conditions
• SHORELINE CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY: indicates that along the Great Lakes shorelines high water, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous but flooding is not expected.
• SHORELINE CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK: gives early notice of the potential for flooding along the Great Lakes shorelines based on weather and lake conditions, and water safety information.
• FLOOD WATCH: potential for flooding exists within specific watercourses and municipalities
• FLOOD WARNING: flooding is imminent or occurring within specific watercourses and municipalities.
LEARN MORE
• Surface Water Monitoring Centre public webpage www.ontario.ca/page/surface-water-monitoring-centre
• Environment Canada bulletins: www.weather.gc.ca
• A close watch on local conditions and weather forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada is recommended.
Nathan Hack, IRM Technical Specialist, Bancroft Work Centre, 613-202-1620
ontario.ca/mnr