Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook Peterborough Bancroft District - Thursday, April 17, 2025
Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook
Peterborough Bancroft District
Thursday, April 17, 2025
3:00pm
The Ministry of Natural Resources – Bancroft Work Centre is advising area residents that a Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook is in effect in the District until Friday, April 25, 2025.
Runoff to local lakes and rivers has been declining since the most recent rain and snowmelt event. Runoff will increase again as a result of forecasted rainfall and warm temperatures.
Residents in Peterborough Bancroft District are reminded to keep a close watch on weather conditions, regularly check for updated messages, and exercise caution near fast-moving rivers and streams.
Flood prone properties along the York River downstream of Baptiste Lake that have been affected in the past should continue to take necessary action to protect and secure any vulnerable property.
Residents and visitors should exercise caution while around waterbodies and maintain close supervision of children and pets.
Residents that have been affected by high water and flow conditions in the past should continue take necessary action to protect and secure any vulnerable property in proximity to rivers and lakes and closely monitor developing conditions and regularly check for updated messages.
The Ministry is closely monitoring the weather and developing watershed conditions.
Further updates will be issued as appropriate.
TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Description of Weather System
10-15mm of rain is forecasted to fall Friday night. Warm temperatures are forecasted before and after the rain event which will continue to melt the remaining snowpack.
Long range forecasts show a majority of above freezing temperatures over the next two weeks.
The combination of the rain and warm temperatures should melt the remaining snow over the coming weeks.
Description of Current Conditions
Lake water levels and river flows peaked on April 8th in the Bancroft area and have since began to decline.
Some snowpack remains in the Bancroft area in isolated locations. The forecasted rainfall will cause water levels and flows to increase again.
Lake Water levels and flows are also declining in the Northern regions of the watershed.
Snow surveys suggest that some areas near Bancroft still hold up to 50mm of water in the snowpack while other snow stations are bare. Northern areas of the watershed (Whitney and Algonquin Park area) are still holding 70-120mm of water in the snowpack.
Water levels and flows will remain elevated as the snowpack continues to melt but are not predicted to rise drastically.
DEFINITIONS
• WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY: indicates that high flows, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous for such users as boaters, anglers and swimmers but flooding is not expected.
• WATERSHED CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK: gives early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snow melt, high winds or other conditions
• SHORELINE CONDITIONS STATEMENT – WATER SAFETY: indicates that along the Great Lakes shorelines high water, melting ice or other factors could be dangerous but flooding is not expected.
• SHORELINE CONDITIONS STATEMENT – FLOOD OUTLOOK: gives early notice of the potential for flooding along the Great Lakes shorelines based on weather and lake conditions, and water safety information.
• FLOOD WATCH: potential for flooding exists within specific watercourses and municipalities
• FLOOD WARNING: flooding is imminent or occurring within specific watercourses and municipalities.
LEARN MORE
• Surface Water Monitoring Centre public webpage www.ontario.ca/page/surface-water-monitoring-centre
• Environment Canada bulletins: www.weather.gc.ca
• A close watch on local conditions and weather forecasts from Environment and Climate Change Canada is recommended.
Nathan Hack, IRM Technical Specialist, Bancroft Work Centre, 613-202-1620
ontario.ca/mnr